The Fourth Turning Is Here

May 22, 2023
Historian Howe (The Fourth Turning, with Strauss) revisits in this far-ranging treatise his concept of historical cycles, which he calls saecula, composed of four generation-long “Turnings.” Since WWII, Howe contends, humans have passed through the “High,” “Awakening,” and “Unraveling” turnings and are currently in the fourth, the “Crisis” turning, which should climax by the early 2030s. The vaguely sketched period could see economic crashes, political chaos, or war, but it will likely leave humanity, Howe argues, with reinvigorated national institutions, social solidarity, prosperity, and technological marvels. Howe grounds all this in an intricate system of generational archetypes stretching back to the 15th century. Thus, the baby boomers are a prophet generation that will offer visionary leadership in the crisis, Generation X a nomad generation that will seek to provide pragmatic management and stability after suffering childhood abandonment, millennials a public-spirited hero generation that will build the new order, and Generation Z an overly sensitive artist generation. Howe’s writing sometimes feels nebulous and Nostradamian—“As Artists replace the Heroes in childhood, they are overprotected at a time of traumatic conflict and adult self-sacrifice”—and his historical comparisons aren’t always well supported. The result is an intriguing but ultimately unconvincing theory of history’s convoluted patterns.